Sure, we’re interested in many of the top storylines from the U.S. Olympic Track and Field Trials, which start Friday in Eugene, Ore. Will Athing Mu actually run, and run well? Will Elle St. Pierre pull off the 1,500/5,000 double? Will Matt Centrowitz have a successful swan song?
There are so many questions out there. But, in this space, we’re asking: How will Flagstaff-based runners fare?
Let’s analyze by event:
Men’s 800 Meters: Dark Sky’s Abe Alvarado realistically has a chance to make the finals in the event, but he is not expected to contend.
Men’s 1,500 Meters: Few are picking NAU’s Colin Sahlman to make the team at 21 years old, despite entering with the fourth fastest time. Almost no one is expecting Dark Sky’s Vince Ciattei to finish in the top three, despite coming in with the sixth best time. Both have legitimate chances, though.
The 15 is so deep that any number of runners could qualify for the Olympics, but most believe that Yared Nuguse is the favorite, understandable since he’s run 3:33.02. There is speculation that Nuguse might take the final, scheduled for Monday, out fast. But if the pace is slow and tactical, that could benefit the kickers, especially Cole Hocker and Cooper Teare.
What about Sahlman and Ciattei? Both will need to be keen on maintaining good positioning throughout to be able to make moves and answer them. Sahlman has a lethal kick, but it’s been a long year for the NAU sophomore, having raced in the NCAAs. Ciattei, a runnerup in the 2018 NCAA 1,500 meters, is fresher but may not have the kick his competitors possess. A faster pace early on would benefit him.
Women’s 1,500 Meters: Flagstaff’s Nikki Hiltz, who trains with NAU’s Mike Smith’s group, is a title contender. She’ll have to deal with St. Pierre, however. St. Pierre is the defending Olympic Trials champion, but Hiltz has to like their chances, given that St. Pierre will be racing on tired legs after the 5,000 meters semis and finals. A wildcard is Elise Cranny, who trains in Colorado but is coached by NAU’s Jarred Cornfield. Cranny, if healthy, has a shot at the title, too. NAU’s Maggi Congdon has one of the slower qualifying times but could advance to at least the semis.
Women’s Steeplechase: NAZ Elite’s Krissy Gear is the defending U.S. champion, but her racing has been hit-and-miss this spring. But Gear’s famous closing kick makes her a threat no matter how the first 2,800 meters of the race plays out. This event is wide open, given that Emma Coburn and Courtney Frerichs are both injured. Dark Sky’s Angelina Ellis could well sneak in for third place, but Val Constien, Allie Ostrander, Courtney Wayment and Olivia Markezich might be too strong. It would be a big personal accomplishment for NAU’s Karrie Baloga to make the finals. Unattached Emma Gee also will try to advance to the finals.
Men’s Steeplechase: This race is wide open, though Kenneth Rooks and Hillary Bor are the favorites. Dark Sky has Matt Wilkinson, who has been running great times this year, and veteran Isaac Updike in the mix. Either could conceivably sneak in. And don’t forget Olympian Evan Jager.
Women’s 5,000 Meters: There are four women who are the considered top picks — St. Pierre, Cranny, Karissa Schweizer and, yes, NCAA champ Parker Valby. Flagstaff’s Rachel Smith has the savvy and experience to sneak onto the podium, but Smith recently posted on Instagram that her training has not gone as well as she hoped due to, among other things, an injured hamstring. NAZ Elite’s Abby Nichols is a sleeper, while NAZ Elite’s Katie Wasserman and NAU’s Alyson Churchill are longshots.
Men’s 5,000 Meters: There are plenty of Flagstaff-based runners in this event, but most observers believe that NAU’s Nico Young, former NAU star Abdi Nur and Woody Kincaid (trained by Smith) will be the primary competition for Grant Fisher. Don’t count out NAZ Elite’s Ahmed Muhumed and Olin Hacker; both have raced well this spring.
Men’s 10,000 Meters: Flagstaff runners will be prominent in this race — it’s the first final, coming Friday night — with Young and Kincaid challenging favorite Grant Fisher. NAZ Elite’s ; Futsum Zienasellassie, returning to the track from the marathon, most likely won’t be in contention. Many believe this event is Young’s best shot at making the Olympics. He showed great promise finishing second to Fisher at The Ten in March.
Women’s 10,000 Meters: Dark Sky’s Weini Kelati is the prohibitive favorite; she’s the only U.S. runner with the Olympic standard and has raced well all season, including getting the U.S. Half Marathon record. Kelati, as is her custom, will probably take the race fast early — or, at least, be at the front of the pack. Since Alicia Monson is hurt and won’t run, it would take a kicker of some note to beat Kelati. Cranny has such a kick, but will she be burned out after the 1,500? Other contenders: Valby, Schweizer, Natosha Rogers (coming back from injury) and Flagstaff’s Smith. A dark horse is Flagstaff’s Elly Henes, who trains with Smith’s group and has a qualfiying time of 30:48.26. Also in the field: NAU’s Churchill, and NAZ Elite’s Stephanie Bruce and Kellyn Taylor.
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