Qualifying for the Olympics is one thing – and quite a major accomplishment in itself – but medaling in the Olympics is quite another.
When it comes to distance events on the track, so many factors are at play. Whether the race goes out fast, or at pedestrian pace. Whether tactical moves are matched or ignored, with consequences coming from either choice. Whether you draw a difficult or easy heat in the qualifying rounds. And, of course, whether the heat itself is a distraction.
That said, assessing the chances of Flagstaff runners (or, for that manner, any U.S. entrant) is earning a medal is difficult. You cannot go by just times – though, of course that matters – or previous head-to-head competition – though that matters, as well. Experience on large international stages matters, too, so in the men’s 10,000 meters, for instance, Grant Fisher and Woody Kincaid may have an advantage over NAU graduate Nico Young, who lacks such racing experience.
Still, don’t count out Young or any Flagstaff-based runner competing for gold, silver or bronze in Paris starting Friday. After all, who would have predicted that Flagstaff’s Molly Seidel would medal in the women’s marathon in Tokyo.
It could be that Flagstaff runners come away empty-handed or that they make a big haul. Or, they fall somewhere in between.
Below is a breakdown of Olympic distance races involving Flagstaff-based runners, accompanied by the initial day and time they take place (either finals or preliminaries):
Friday, Aug. 2
Men’s 1,500 Meters: Round 1 (3:05 a.m. Pacific)
Flagstaff will be represented by part-time resident Hobbs Kessler, who has a house now in town, and Under Armour Dark Sky’s Neil Gourley, representing Great Britain. Kessler is a decided longshot to medal in a field that is stacked – perhaps the finest 1,500 field in recent memory – and it would quite a run for Gourley to reach the podium. Kessler’s American teammates, Yared Nuguse and Cole Hocker, have a slightly better shot. Favorites: Norway’s Jacob Ingebrigtsen and Britain’s Josh Kerr, plus Kenyan Timothy Cheruiyot.
Men’s 10,000 Meters: Final (12:20 p.m. Pacific)
Can any American – Fisher, Kincaid or Young – crack the East African stranglehold in this event. It will be a tall order. Young is coming off a long NCAA season at NAU, then immediately started hard training for the U.S. Olympic Trials. He hasn’t raced since then, but has been in heavy training in Flagstaff with Kincaid and Luis Grijalva and Abdihamid Nur. Young just turned 22 this week, and it would be quite an upset if he medals. Kincaid, who also trains in Flagstaff under NAU’s Mike Smith, is more experienced and has a lethal kick, so a slow early pace might help him. Young, too, for that matter. Hoka NAZ Elite’s Adriaan Wildschutt, representing South Africa, has run well all season but doesn’t figure to be in medal contention. Favorites: Reigning Olympic champ Selemon Barega of Ethiopia, reigning World champ and world record holder Joshua Cheptegei of Uganda, Yomif Kejelcha of Ethiopia, Berihu Aregawi of Ethiopia.
Sunday, Aug. 4
Women’s 3,000-Meter Steeplechase: Round 1 (1:05 a.m.)
Dark Sky’s Regan Yee, representing Canada, is experienced on the international stage, but she faces a deep field. She is a good bet to make the finals, though. Favorites: Winfred Yavi of Bahrain, Peruth Chemutai of Uganda, Beatrice Chepkoech of Kenya.
Monday, Aug. 5
Men’s 3,000-Meter Steeplechase: Round 1 (10:04 a.m. Pacific)
Former NAU star Geordie Beamish, representing New Zealand, will try to see if his famous closing kick in the mile can translate into a steeplechase medal. Meanwhile, Dark Sky’s Matt Wilkinson proved at the Olympic Trials that he’s not afraid to stick his nose in a race and set the pace. Whether that translates into a medal is unlikely. Favorites: Reigning Olympic champ Soufiane El Bakkali of Morocco, Lamecha Girma of Ethiopia, Samuel Firewuof Ethiopia and Getnet Wale of Ethiopia.
Tuesday, Aug. 6
Women’s 1,500 Meters: Round 1 (1:05 a.m. Pacific)
Can Nikki Hiltz continue her savvy racing and come away with a medal? Don’t count them out, but it will be a difficult task, to say the least, what with the likes of Kenya’s Faith Kipyegon, Austalia’s Jessica Hull and a host of other East Africans with which to contend. Hiltz ran a personal best of 3:55:33 to win the U.S. Olympic Trials. They and fellow American Elle St. Pierre could sneak up on the podium in Paris, as could Dark Sky’s Susan Ejore of Kenya. Favorites: Kipyegon, Hull, Gudaf Tsegay of Ethiopia, Birke Haylom of Ethiopia, Diribe Welteji of Ethiopia, Sifan Hassan of the Netherlands.
Wednesday, Aug. 7
Men’s 5,000 Meters: Round 1 (2:10 a.m. Pacific)
Another deep field here. Former NAU stars Grijalva and Nur are contenders, but not considered favorites – though some wise pundits are picking Grijalva to medal. He has a fourth-place finish in the World Championships and is a savvy racer, as is American Fisher. Favorites: Ingebrigtsen, Hagos Gebrhiwet of Ethiopia, Joshua Cheptegei of Uganda, Jacob Kiplimo of Uganda, Oscar Chelimo of Uganda.
Men’s 800 Meters: Round 1 (2:55 a.m. Pacific)
It may take a sub-1:42 to win gold in the 800. Can either Kessler or part-time Flag resident Bryce Hoppel go that low? We’ll see. Certainly, both should contend, with Hoppel certain to make the final, at least. Favorites: Djamel Sedjati of Algeria, Marco Arop of Canada, Emmanuel Wanyonyi of Kenya.
Friday, Aug. 9
Women’s 10,000 Meters: Final (11:55 a.m. Pacific)
Dark Sky’s Weini Kelati is America’s best chance to medal in the 10,000, but the field is stacked. The field is led by world record holder Beatrice Chebet (28.54:19), but don’t count out the indefatigable Sifan Hassan and Margaret Kipkemboi ofKenya. Other favorites: Fotyen Tesfay, Tsigie Gebreselama, and Aynadis Mebrat.
Saturday: Aug. 10
Men’s Marathon (10 p.m., Pacific)
On paper, neither Canada’s Rory Linkletter or Lesotho’s Tebello Ramakongoana, both of whom train in Flagstaff, figure in the medal chase. But both excel at hills, and there is 1,200 feet of elevation gain on the Paris course. So, who knows? Favorites: Eliud Kipchoge of Kenya, Benson Kipruto of Kenya, Tamirat Tola of Ethiopia, Alexander Munyao of Kenya, Deresa Geleta of Ethiopia.
Sunday: Aug. 11
Women’s Marathon (10 p.m. Pacific)
Dark Sky’s Sharon Lokedi of Kenya will be racing just her fourth marathon, but don’t count her out. Though not a favorite, Lokedi is dangerous on difficult courses. She won the New York City Marathon and finished second in April at the Boston Marathon. The hilly course in Paris suits her. Favorites: Kenya’s Hellen Obiri, Hassan, Lokedi, Peres Jepchirchir, Tigst Assefa, Amane Beriso and the American wildcard, Fiona O’Keeffe.
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